The bookmakers are out with their EURO 2021 top goalscorer odds. England striker Harry Kane is the favourite, but he can expect fierce competition from several fronts. The EUROs kick off in a few days so the market will close in a few days.
Tottenham Hotspurs’ lethal number nine was practically unstoppable in the European Championship qualifying Group A, where he scored 12 times in just eight matches. However, a look at the EURO 2021 top scorer odds tells you that Kane is not going to win the Golden Boot without a proper fight. There are both Belgian, German, French and Portuguese players lurking in the shadows.
Betting on the Euro 2021 top goalscorer odds is one of the most popular outright markets for the upcoming Euro 2020 competition. Here are our tips.
Here are the favourites to become EURO 2021 top goalscorer
The Euros are just around the corner now, and as usual, the tournament presents an excellent opportunity for bettors. There are loads of available Euro 2021 markets at all major online sports betting sites, and one of the most popular is the top goalscorer bet. Every tournament, the player with the highest number of goals scored will win the golden boot.
At the moment, England’s Harry Kane is the frontrunner for the top goalscorer at Euro 2021, with odds as low as 5/1. Romelu Lukaku of Belgium and Kylian Mbappe of France are not far behind, with odds of 7/1 and 9/1. But who has the best chance? The winner of the golden boot is usually from a team that goes far in the competition, so it makes sense that the players with the best odds are from teams that also have good odds to win the tournament.
Another factor to consider when choosing the top goalscorer bet is the teams that the player will likely face. The group stages are one of the best chances to score a lot of goals, as it will usually contain weaker opposition. As a result, the type of opposition that a player will face during the group stages should factor into your decision.
On this page, we’ve analysed the chances of each of the top goalscorer betting options, giving our own thoughts on each player’s chances. To come up with our analysis, we’ve looked at the current form of each player, how likely it is for their team to go far in the tournament and the quality of the opposition they’re going to be facing. Read on for our full guide on the Euro 2021 top goalscorer bet.
Harry Kane Top Goalscorer Odds – 13/2
Harry Kane is currently the favourite to win the golden boot award at Euro 2021. Many consider him to be one of the best strikers in the world right now, and he’s been at the peak of his ability for several seasons. Kane is fresh from winning the golden boot in the Premier League, and the fact that he’s playing for a very strong England side means he has an excellent opportunity to add to his individual awards.
Harry Kane, the England captain, is England’s biggest weapon. All opposing teams know about him, know that they have to always be on guard and aware of his movement and threat, and yet, he still manages to score goals for fun. The only big negative is that he seems to keep firing blanks when it comes to the Euro competition. During World Cups is a different story, and Kane was the top scorer at the last World Cup. Group D is not the easiest group in the competition and Kane will have to be at his very best. Kane is still the most likely candidate for the top scorer of the Euro 2021 and has the shortest odds with most bookies.
Kane may have had a disappointing season for Tottenham as they finished seventh in the league and failed to win any silverware, but his 23 goals and 14 assists show he’s one of the best in the world. At the 2018 World Cup, Kane won the golden boot while England finished fourth, and many believe that England will perform even better this time around. When coupled with the fact that England play Scotland and the Czech Republic during the group stages, it’s hard to see anyone but Kane winning.
One thing that counts against him is that he’s had a long and difficult season. Some feel that Kane could pick up an injury after playing so many games with little rest. He suffered from an ankle injury earlier in the season, and if this reoccurs, he could lose out on his chance to top the goalscorer table.
Romelu Lukaku Top Goalscorer Odds – 7/1
Lukaku is the second favourite at most online betting sites, although the odds are subject to change between now and the start of the Euros. After having a monstrous season in Serie A and the fact that he plays for a strong Belgium side who finished third at the 2018 World Cup, it’s hardly surprising to see he’s so highly rated.
At the age of 28, he’s now at his peak and scored 24 goals and 10 assists while helping Inter to their first Scudetto in eleven years. He also scored 4 goals in 5 Champions League games, showing how much he’s improved since his time at Manchester United. As far as success in the league goes, Lukaku’s season couldn’t have gone any better, and he’ll definitely take this confidence into the tournament as he starts for Belgium.
There are some doubts over Lukaku’s success, however, as Belgium look a lot weaker than they did at the World Cup. Their star player Eden Hazard has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons and is out of form currently. On top of this, Kevin De Bruyne just picked up a serious face injury during the Champions League final, and it’s not clear whether he’ll have a chance to play. Belgium do face relatively easy opposition in Russia, Finland and Denmark, but it’s unclear how their form will be at this tournament.
Kylian Mbappe – Best Odds 11/1
Mbappe is one of the leading talents of an incredibly strong French side and has made a huge impact on the football world since he debuted for Monaco at helped them win the Ligue 1 title at the age of 18. Since then, he’s joined PSG and impressed at the 2018 World Cup, where he scored four goals and came joint second in the race for the golden boot.
This season, PSG failed to win the league title for the first time in four years and also went out of the Champions League in the semi-finals. Despite this, Mbappe still performed well, scoring 27 goals, and 7 assists in Ligue 1 and 8 goals and 3 assists in the Champions League. While he’s only 22 years old, Mbappe is an excellent goal scorer and definitely has the potential to lead the race, especially since France are the favourites to lift the trophy.
One thing to note is that France have the most difficult group in the tournament. Mbappe will have to perform well against Germany, Portugal and Hungary if he’s to stand a chance of being top goal scorer, which is perhaps the reason why the odds don’t consider him the favourite. On top of that, he isn’t the only attacking threat for France, who also have Griezmann and Benzema.
Cristiano Ronaldo – Best Odds 13/1
Ronaldo is now 36 years old and certainly not the same player he was just a few seasons ago. Still, he remains one of the most lethal finishers in the world of football and will have a good chance of putting himself in the front running for the golden boot. Ronaldo’s chances will be boosted by the fact that Portugal have an extremely strong squad, and he’ll no doubt be looking to add to his massive trophy cabinet.
By his usual standards, Ronaldo has had a poor season. Juventus failed to win the league title for the first time in nine years. On top of that, they went out in the Champions League last 16 to Porto. Despite this, Ronaldo still scored 29 league goals, showing he still has that goal scoring instinct even if he might not have the same athletic capabilities as before. At Euro 2016, which Portugal won, Ronaldo scored three goals, coming joint second in the race for the golden boot, despite being injured in the final against France.
Like Mbappe, Ronaldo has a difficult group to deal with, that means he could struggle to score goals. However, Ronaldo has never been one to shy away from a challenge and has a knack for scoring against the best opposition in the world. Portugal has a very strong team, especially in midfield, where the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva will be feeding his chances as much as possible.
Ronaldo currently has 9 goals in the Euro competition and has played 21 matches. He is not the most prolific scorer during the Euros, but, you need to remember he was injured during the last final. Even though he is 36 years old now, he is currently in red hot form and still scoring goals like a decade ago. We would rather back this market than Lukaku.
The best goal scorers in the European Championship qualifiers
Below we have listed the players who have scored the most goals in the European Championship qualification. Not all players have participated in the same number of matches, which is why we have calculated the numbers of minutes played as well as the number of minutes per goal. The difference in the number of matches is because there were not the same number of teams in all qualification groups. In addition, there are also injuries and matches where players have been rested. Please also note that we have excluded players from countries that did not qualify for the EUROs.
|Player||Country||Goals||Matches||Minutes played||Minutes per Goal|
|Harry Kane||England||12 (4)||8||667||55.58|
|Cristiano Ronaldo||Portugal||11 (3)||8||644||58.45|
|Teemu Pukki||Finland||10 (3)||10||882||88.20|
|Artem Dzyuba||Russia||9 (1)||10||780||88,66|
|Serge Gnabry||Germany||8 (0)||7||594||74.25|
|Raheem Sterling||England||8 (0)||7||574||71.75|
|Georginio Wijnaldum||Netherlands||8 (0)||7||630||78.75|
|Romelu Lukaku||Belgium||7 (0)||5||405||57.85|
|John McGinn*||Scotland||7 (0)||10||757||108.14|
|Marko Arnautovic||Austria||6 (2)||8||711||118.5|
|Memphis Depay||Netherlands||6 (1)||6||495||82.5|
|Olivier Giroud||France||6 (2)||10||698||116.33|
|Robert Lewandowski||Poland||6 (1)||10||837||139.5|
NOTE: The number in parentheses indicates the number of goals scored on penalties.
*Including play-off matches
Now that we have an overview of which players have scored the most goals in the European Championship qualifiers, which is something you definitely need for finding the best the best EURO 2021 top goalscorer odds, we should also take a look at how many goals is usually required to become top scorer at the EUROs.
EURO top scorer – how many goals does it take?
To become EURO 2021 top scorer, the player(s) will probably be required to score around 4,4 goals. Or that is to say: This has been the case from EURO 1996 up until EURO 2012. At these tournaments there were 16 teams participating, and the players could play a maximum of six matches if they managed to reach the final. No bronze medal match will be played at the European Championships.
At the most recent EUROs in 2016, the number of participating teams was increased to 24. Thus, the players who reached the final got one extra match compared to previous EUROs. Antoine Griezmann took advantage of this by scoring six times in seven matches as he won the Golden Boot. The format is the same this year: 24 teams. This means that if you get all the way to the final, you have seven matches to increase your goal tally.
Let’s take a historical look back at how the EURO top scorers have fared since 1996:
|Year||Goals/top scorer||Team finish||Goals (min) group stage||Goals (min) knockout||Min played||Share of team goals||Penalties scored|
|2016||6 – Griezmann||Silver||1 (165)||5 (390)||555/660||6/13||1 (1)|
|2012||3 – Balotelli||Silver||1 (141)||2 (280)||421/570||3/6||0 (0)|
|3 – Ronaldo||Semi final||2 (270)||1 (210)||480/480||3/6||0 (0)|
|3 – Dzagoev||Group stage||3 (253)||0 (0)||253/270||3/5||0 (0)|
|3 – Mandzukic||Group stage||3 (270)||0 (0)||270/270||3/4||0 (0)|
|3 – Gómez||Semi final||3 (226)||0 (55)||281/450||3/10||0 (0)|
|3 – Torres||Gold||2 (151)||1 (38)||189/570||3/12||0 (0)|
|2008||4 – Villa||Gold||4 (180)||0 (154)||334/570||4/12||0 (0)|
|2004||5 – Baros||Semi final||3 (208)||2 (175)||383/465||5/10||0 (0)|
|2000||5 – Kluivert||Semi final||2 (270)||1 (180)||450/480||5/13||0 (1)|
|5 – Milosevic||Quarter final||4 (218)||1 (90)||308/360||5/8||0 (0)|
|1996||5 – Shearer||Semi final||4 (255)||1 (240)||495/510||5/8||1 (1)|
How did it go at the last and the previous EUROs?
What were the top scorer odds for the last and previous EUROs, and was it one of the favourites who became top scorer? We’ll take a quick look at that in this section.
The two biggest favourites to win the Golden Boot in 2016 were Germany’s Thomas Müller and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo. Both were priced at odds 9.00 three weeks before the tournament started. Antoine Griezmann was the bookmaker’s third biggest favourite to become top scorer. He was priced at odds 12.00. Then came Robert Lewandowski (17.00), Harry Kane (17.00), Romelu Lukaku (20/1) and Olivier Giroud (20/1).
In 2012, there was a total of six players who ended up scoring three goals (as shown in the table above). Three of them (Mario Gómez, Cristiano Ronaldo and Fernando Torres) were among the bookmaker’s favourites in the range of odds 9/1 – 19/1.
However, the three other players (Mario Balotelli, Mario Mandzukic and Alan Dzagoev) were not players that the bookmaker’s expected to become top scorers at EURO 2012. At certain bookmakers Mario Balotelli was priced as high as odds 49/1 while Alan Dzagoev at some places gave a hefty return of odds 79/1.
IMPORTANT: Please note that the bookmakers distinguish between “EURO 2021 top scorer” and “winner of the Golden Boot”. The difference is that the Golden Boot cannot be shared between multiple players. So, if two or more players an equal amount of goals, the winner is found on the two following criteria:
- Number of assists
- Least number of minutes played
Therefore: If it is a bet on the winner of the Golden Boot that is offered, then you must have picked that specific player in order to win. If, on the other hand, it is a EURO 2021 top scorer odds, you bet will typically be valid if several players end up with the same amount of goals. However, it can happen that your odds are divided by the number of players who ends up being deemed EURO 2021 top scorer. Always check the bookmaker’s rule if you have any doubts.
Longer bets on the Euro 2021 top goal scorer market
The Euro 2021 top goalscorer market is based on the players which will score the most goals during the Euro 2020 tournament. Goals scored during the qualifiers do not count. Only goals scored when the tournament begins on June 11th until the Euro 2021 Final in Wembley Stadium on July 11th count. Here are some of the longer bets that you might want to have a punt on.
All odds are subject to change. These odds were last updated on 08/06/21.
Where can I place my top goalscorer bets?
Only place bets with reputable and trustworthy bookmakers that are licensed and regulated by the UKGC. All licensed bookmakers must display their UKGC license number on every page of their site, which you can usually find on the page footer. Each licensed UK bookmaker must all have links to Gamstop and BeGambleAware.org.
At the moment, not all bookies have opened the Euro 2020 top goalscorer betting markets. You can find the current odds on these sites: